000 AXNT20 KNHC 260608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 mb low is centered near 29N79W. Satellite and radar data Indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure remain disorganized and limited in coverage. However, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form overnight or on Monday while the low moves west or west-northwestward or northwestward, reaching the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia Monday evening or Monday night. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the south from 05N to 09N between 20W and 27W. An Atlantic tropical wave along 59W south of 14N moving west at 15-20 kt, moving through Guyana and approaching Barbados. There is reasonable evidence of this wave in Hovmoller diagrams going back several days. Recent satellite-derived wind data from the lower levels of the atmosphere hints the wave is restricted to the deep tropics. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 14N between 55W and 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from western Hispaniola to northeast Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical wave is moving west of an upper-level low centered off northern Haiti. Dry, subsident air in the northerly flow on the west side of this upper low, along with lingering, dry Saharan air, are inhibiting any major convection near the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from western Cuba to western Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to near the monsoon trough, S of 12N and is described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N25W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon and ITCZ E of 54W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from off the coast of Colombia near 12N73W to near the Costa Rica/Panama border near 09N82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of this monsoon trough axis, with the threat for heavy rainfall in the southwest Caribbean gradually winding down tonight. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Straits to the central Gulf near 25N89W. Farther west, 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 28N93W. A few showers are ongoing along the trough. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure remains centered over the NW Gulf while a trough extends from South Florida to near 25N89W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist south of the trough through Mon night as if drifts westward. Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf basin Wed and Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on convection across the Caribbean Basin. The risk of flooding over the southwest Caribbean has diminished. However, there are still lingering scattered showers and tstorms in the area with less areal coverage compared to the previous days. Light breezes and slight seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The trade wind flow is lighter than usual, related in part to a relatively weaker subtropical ridge north of the area. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the basin through Thu, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will increase across the E and central Caribbean Thu night into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlantic waters north of the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the low east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on the wave off the African coast. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Atlantic From south of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas, specifically from 17N to 23N between 62W and 71W. This activity is tied to upper level divergence between an upper low over the Turks/Caicos Islands and an upper trough in the northwest flow aloft farther to the northeast over the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is analyzed in this area of convection, from 21N61W to 31N63W. Another trough is analyzed farther east, from 18N to 30N between 45W and 50W. The troughs are south of a 1029 mb high pressure near 39N35W. Scatterometer satellite passes indicated fresh SE winds near western trough. This is evidence of a broader area of fresh winds from 20N to 26N between 63W and 68W between the trough and the ridge, with seas estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Similarly moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely between the eastern trough and the ridge, from 25N to 31N between 30W and 46W. Aside from fresh to strong winds near the Cape Verde Islands and off Morocco, this pattern is support generally moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a Caribbean tropical wave along 73W will continue to spread north and northwestward across the waters E of 75W through Tue. $$ Torres