755 AXNT20 KNHC 251050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 mb low is centered near 29N78.5W, where overnight scatterometer data showed a broad and well defined cyclonic circulations, with peak winds to 30 kt within 60 nm across the SE semicircle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the low continue to extend from the central Bahamas north and northeastward to 29N between 75W and 78W. However, the system still lacks significant convection activity near its center and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated a tropical depression. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional development, and tropical depression could still form today while the low moves generally westward at 5-10 knots towards the east coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of development within 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Southern Central America, particularly in Panama, Costa Rica and Southern Nicaragua. High moisture content, persistent monsoon flow, and favorable conditions aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous strong convection capable of producing torrential rain through Monday. Heavy rainfall in these areas could cause significant flooding and mudslides. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from the coast of Africa from Guinea to Sierra Leone and E of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave has been introduced along 56W south of 12N moving west at 15-20 kt. Upper air observations and model diagnostics show this wave exiting the W coast of Africa on Jul 20. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 50W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 22N southward, moving W 15-20 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper- level low across the extreme SE Bahamas, and is generating scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection from the NE coast of Puerto Rico to 27N between 64W and 70W. The low level wind surge and Saharan Air accompanying this wave has moved NW ahead of the wave and reaches as far north as 29N and as far west as 74W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 80W from 22N southward, moving W near 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to near the monsoon trough, S of 11.5N and is described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16W to 08.5N27W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03.5N to 08.5N and between 23W-37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 03N to 06N between 41W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends into the eastern Gulf from the Florida coast near 26N82W to 28.5N87W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm south of the trough from the Florida Keys north to 90W. A cluster of scattered strong convection is in the north- central Gulf, from 27.5N to 29N between 90W and 91.5W. At the surface, a 1017 mb high pressure persists near 27N93W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with locally fresh winds likely near the northwest Yucatan coast. Seas range between 2 to 4 ft. The high pressure across the N central Gulf will meander and weaken through Mon as a low pressure currently located east of Daytona Beach, Florida moves slowly westward toward the Florida Peninsula, then westward across north central Florida Sun night and Mon and into the NE Gulf. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue across the basin into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on convection across the Caribbean Basin. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted across the SW Caribbean, south of 11.5N between extreme SE Nicaragua and Colombia, and is associated with the Pacific monsoon trough. A surface low is analyzed near the coast of Panama near 10N80.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Greater Antilles which are moving into adjacent waters. Latest ASCAT winds indicates gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean with locally fresh winds N of Colombia. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. The Atlantic ridge N of the Caribbean will weaken through early next week as the anchoring high centered across the central Atlantic shifts slowly NE and low pressure persists offshore of the Florida coast. This will lead to diminished tradewinds across the basin through Wed. Look for scattered showers and tstms across the E Caribbean and tropical Atlantic waters today associated with another fast moving tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the low east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on the wave off the African coast. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 38N39W and extends west southwest to the NW Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed south of the high from 20N43W to 30N46W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis. West of 65W, a stationary front is north of the low center off of Florida, extending from 32n75W to the coast of Florida near 29.5N81W. Scattered to locally numerous convection associated with the wind surge preceding the tropical wave along 72W is described above and dominates much of the waters south of 27N between 64W and 71W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic south of 28N between 55W and the Bahamas, where seas 5 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft are noted. The Atlantic ridge will weaken slightly over the next few days as the anchoring high shifts slowly NE and low pressure persists offshore and along the N central coast of Florida. Winds will remain SE across the waters west of 55W through Mon behind the tropical wave along 72W. Moderate to fresh E winds will return late Mon through Tue as a broad trough approaches the region from the E. In the eastern Atlantic, tranquil conditions prevail under surface ridging anchored by a 1026 mb high near 38N39W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft. $$ Stripling