000 AXNT20 KNHC 191028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 40W from 20N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is moving through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep convective precipitation is associated with it. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N mainly over land. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 09N61W. Scattered showers prevail within 150 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 30W, and along the ITCZ between 46W-60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 27N. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeasterly winds prevailing across most of the basin except over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where moderate winds are noted. For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along 10N between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough mainly south of 10N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of the basin south of 18N between 70W-82W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The Bermuda High north of the area combined with lower pressure over N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south-central Caribbean through most of the week. Expect an increase in speed and areal coverage from tonight through Wed night while reaching as far west as the Hispaniola adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A surface ridge passes extends along 30N across the basin. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 25N northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 10N to 25N. Fresh winds and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to 24N between 71W and 77W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights ranging from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Surface ridging, associated with the Bermuda High, will move slowly southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through midweek. $$ ERA