000 AXNT20 KNHC 182334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 20N southward and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N- 07N between 33W-38W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic southward across Venezuela and Colombia, and moving W near 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the central Caribbean basin and Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stretches from the Guinea Bissau coast near 12N16W to 07N37W. Then the ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N58W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident 05N-12N east of 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging across along the N Gulf coast support light to gentle ESE to SE winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the entire Gulf. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. For the forecast, the Bermuda High extends a ridge westward along 30N and toward the north-central Gulf Coast. The ridge will sink southward through Mon, providing tranquil conditions across the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh E winds will begin pulsing Wed night to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient betwen the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over N South America is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean this evening. Elsewhere the trades are moderate. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. In addition to convection associated with the tropical wave over the central Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N in the SW Caribbean in connection with the Pacific monsoon trough which reaches to N Colombia. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined with lower pressure over N Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean through most of the week. Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds Mon night through Wed night, reaching as far north as the Hispaniola adjacent waters. Winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela will pulse to strong to near gale force at times, through Thu. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage tonight and again Wed through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging across the Atlantic along 32N associated with the Bermuda/Azores High is in place across the subtropical N Atlantic this evening. A moderate pressure gradient from the Bermuda/Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 22N. A pronounced Saharan Air Layer with substantial amounts of dust is noted east of 60W south of 22N. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 22N. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High will slowly sink southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent conditions across the remainder of the western Atlantic. $$ Landsea/Chan