000
AXNT20 KNHC 171020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 02N to 21W
with axis near 32W, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave remains 
embedded in the Saharan Air Layer, which dust and dry air is 
limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 02N to 08N 
between 26W and 36W. 

A tropical wave is to the east of the Lesser Antilles extending
S of 20N, with axis near 57W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The
wave is in the periphery of the Saharan Air Layer outbreak, and
only isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave. 

A tropical wave entering the western Caribbean extends S of 16N
with axis near 76W, moving westward 15 kt. The wave is embedded in
a strong vertical shear environment which is limiting the
convection to the vicinity of the monsoon trough. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N34W to 04N48W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is off the W
coast of Africa from 04N to 15N between 10W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A col of low pressure in the middle levels and an inverted trough
in the upper levels is supporting a surface trough over the
Yucatan peninsula, which is generating scattered showers and tstms
in the Bay of Campeche. 

The Bermuda high extends a ridge SW across the SE CONUS and into 
the gulf, which supports maily moderate to locally fresh return 
flow across the basin. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate 
by Mon and continue through the middle of the upcoming week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstms are over the NW basin. Similar
convection is across the Windward Islands as the tropical wave to
the east continue to move westward.

The Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure over N 
Colombia continue to support fresh to strong NE to E trades over 
the S central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. These winds 
will continue through early next week and increase in speed and 
areal coverage Mon night through Wed night, reaching Hispaniola 
adjacent waters. Otherwise, NE trades will become fresh to strong 
Sat night and Sun night in the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The entire basin is under the influence of the Bermuda high, which
is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 10N to 26N and seas
from 4 to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong E winds will occur late afternoons and evenings 
north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Elsewhere, the 
Bermuda High north of the area will support moderate to locally 
fresh E to SE winds S of 25N through Wed night. Mainly light to 
gentle variable winds will dominate elsewhere.

$$
Ramos