000 AXNT20 KNHC 162252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 22N southward and moving W at 10 knots. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished, partially due to dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer present in the vicinity. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 20N southward and moving W near 15 to 20 knots. Dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer has also suppressed convection associated with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from just S of Haiti to Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening. A second Caribbean tropical wave is along 87N from the Yucatan Channel through Honduras and Nicaragua, then extending into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in the far NW Caribbean, in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends through the Senegal-Gambia border at 14N17W to 08N34W, then the ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 17W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is near the coast of SE Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, due to an upper level low north of the region. Otherwise, dry conditions dominate the basin. A surface ridge across the N Gulf near 28N continues to provide mainly gentle winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft across most of the Gulf. Moderate winds are occurring in the Florida Straits and adjacent waters off western Cuba. For the forecast, weak surface ridging over SE CONUS will slowly sink southward to reach the N Gulf of Mexico by Mon through Wed. Quiescent winds and seas are expected to continue through at least Wed night. No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the NW Carribbean primarily associated with a tropical wave. Otherwise, generally dry conditions prevail through the basin. Fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen across the S central Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure over N South America is supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Additionally, NE trades will become fresh to strong Sat night and Sun night in the Windward Passage. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over the Caribbean or Tropical N Atlantic for the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is noted N of 26N between 72W and 77W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection. A surface ridge extends southwestward from the 1031 mb Azores high across the 1023 mb Bermuda high to N Florida. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft N of 23N from 35W to Georgia-Florida coastline. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail from 11N to 23N between 26W and the Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canarias Islands from N of 24N between the African coast and 26W. Light to gentle E to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur late afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Elsewhere, a weak Bermuda High north of the area is supporting generally quiescent conditions through at least Wed night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over the SW North Atlantic for the next several days. $$ KONARIK