000 AXNT20 KNHC 080600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 08/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Elsa is located inland over SE Georgia near 32.7N 82.0W, or 91 nm NNW of Brunswick, GA. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Elsa is moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North Carolina later today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details. For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at www.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 22W from 10N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 22W-28W. A second tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 02N-07N between 31W-39W. A third tropical wave is along 55W south of 14N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-10N between 55W-57W. A tropical wave over the east central Caribbean is along 68W south of 13N, moving west at about 10-15 kt. No convection is noted over the Caribbean at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted over central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N21W to 08N32W. A segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 05N40W to 04N48W. Scattered showers are near the monsoon trough from 08N to 16N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface low and upper level trough over SE Texas support scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf, from 23N to 29N west of 93W. Surface observations and scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh SE winds in this area of convection. A diurnal surface trough is analyzed along the W Yucatan Peninsula, from 23N88W to 19N91W. Scattered moderate convection is collapsing and moving inland over the state of Tabasco. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf, except in the northeast section of the basin where gentle W winds persist in the wake of Tropical Storm Elsa. Seas are 3-6 ft throughout the Gulf. For the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to pull away from the area through Thu. High pressure from the Atlantic will build westward across the area through the next few days, with relatively quiet conditions expected. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are expected to continue through late on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Near-gale force E winds were observed by the scatterometer in the Gulf fo Venezuela. Strong trades continue in the south central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, with 7-11 ft seas. Strong trades are also ocurring in the Gulf of Honduras with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the E Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the north central Caribbean and SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage. For the forecast: Widespread strong trades will continue in the south- central Caribbean into Fri night. These winds may reach near gale force Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Of note, during the summer, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high, when it is at its westernmost position. Circulation around the high results in southerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico and easterly winds over the Caribbean Sea. These winds bring warm, moist air from the ocean over land. For us in South Florida, this pattern brings with it the rainy season and high dewpoints. Today, the 0000 UTC surface analysis shows a 1030 mb Azores high located near 36N38W with the associated ridge reaching the Bahamas and SE Florida. Strong trades were detected within 40 nm of the north coast of Hispaniola, with 5-7 ft seas. Strong to near-gale force N winds and 6-8 ft seas are occurring in Meteo-France's Agadir zone, within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Throughout the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail, and veer to SE west of 70W. An area of fresh trades is noted in Atlantic waters from 10N to 22N east of 52W. Seas are 3-6 ft west of 70W, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W: Fresh southeast winds will continue off the northern Florida coast through tonight as Tropical Storm Elsa, currently inland over southeastern Georgia, tracks northeastward across the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. through late Thu, at which point these winds will diminish. High pressure will then build westward across the area through the Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the period. $$ Mahoney