000 AXNT20 KNHC 072321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County along the North Florida Gulf Coast around 11 am EDT. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 65 mph at the time of landfall. Currently, Elsa is inland moving across southern Georgia accompanied by very heavy rain. At 07/2100 UTC, Elsa is centered near 30.8N 83.4W or 100 nm WSW of Brunswick Georgia moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Hazardous marine conditions over the NE Gulf will gradually improve through this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at www.weather.gov. Gale warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning is in effect for Agadir through 08/00 UTC. The forecast from Meteo-France indicates N winds Force 8 of the Beaufort Wind Scale in far E. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed in their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/ bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 16N southward. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 06N-10N between 21W-24W. A large cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is reaching the W coast of Africa, affecting parts of Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and Senegal. A second tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer data and the cloud field suggest some cyclonic circulation along the wave axis near 08N. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-10N between 30W-37W. A third tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic along 53W south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is on either side of the wave axis from 08N-10N between 50W-56W. A low-amplitude tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance some convective activity over parts of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Senegal near 11N15W to 09N20W to 08N32W to 04N42W. The ITCZ continues from 04N32W to 05N51W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County along the North Florida Gulf Coast this morning. Elsa is expected to remain inland over Georgia and the Carolinas during the next day or two. Please see Special Features section above for more details. Lines of clouds, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, associated with the cyclonic circulation of T.S. Elsa are still noted over the eastern Gulf while a 1010 mb low pressure over southern Texas is producing a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection over the NW Gulf, particularly from 24N-28N W of 95W. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate SE winds W of 87W. SW to W winds are along the eastern Gulf and the W coast of Florida due to the large circulation of Elsa. For the forecast: The Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the Gulf waters in the wake of Elsa with a 1019-1020 mb high pressure cell developing over the NE Gulf on Thu. Seas of 8-9 ft over the NE Gulf will continue to gradually subside as Elsa moves away from the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean while an altimeter pass over the same area indicates seas up to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean. Buoy 42058 located near 14N75W is also reporting seas of 11 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the eastern Caribbean and the waters E of the Lesser Antilles with seas of 6-7 ft, except 4-5 ft just W of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast: As the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of tropical cyclone Elsa, expect widespread strong trades to continue in the south-central Caribbean into Fri night. These winds may reach near gale force Thu through Fri night with seas building to 12-14 ft by Thu night into Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Of note, during the summer, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high, with is at its westernmost position. Circulation around the high results in southerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico and easterly winds over the Caribbean Sea. The winds bring warm, moist air from the ocean onto the land. Today, the 1800 UTC surface analysis shows a 1029 mb Azores high located near 36N37W with the associated ridge reaching the Bahamas and SE Florida. Bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with the circulation of Elsa are affecting northern Florida and southern Georgia as well as the Atlantic regional waters. Some showers and thunderstorm activity is also noted over the NW Bahamas. For the forecast W of 65W: Fresh southeast winds will continue off the northern Florida coast through tonight due to Tropical Storm Elsa, which is forecast to track northeastward across the southeastern U.S. through Thu allowing for these winds to diminish. High pressure will then build westward across the area through Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the period. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted near the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara per scatterometer data, including also the Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures over W Africa. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. These marine conditions will persist over the next couple of days as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens. $$ GR