000 AXNT20 KNHC 071727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 29.9N 83.6W at 07/1500 UTC or about 56 nm North-northwest of Cedar Key, Florida. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed of 55 kt gust to 65 kt. Peak wave heights are estimated to be around 13 ft in within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the N and NE quadrants. Scattered moderate convection is detached outer rain bands are noted from 25N-27N in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Hazardous marine conditions over the NE Gulf will gradually improve through this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at www.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The next tropical wave has emerged of the coast of Africa with its axis along 19W, from 16N southward. Increasing clusters of scattered moderate convection are seen along its axis from 01N to 12N between 17W-23W. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 01N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer shows a low pressure about 60 nm west of the wave axis near over 08N32W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 26W to 35W. This convection is on an increasing trend. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis and to the west of the wave to near 52W. A low-amplitude eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 13N to the coast of Venezuela in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 08N31W to 07N41W. A very small segment of the ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N46W, then resumes west of the tropical wave from 07N52W to the coast of Brazil near 06N56W. Aside from the convection described above in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted extending 300 nm south of the monsoon trough between the two tropical waves, and scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ between 52W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County along the north Florida Gulf coast this morning. Please see Special Features section above for details. As of 07/0900 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed just inland the Texas coast, with a 1009 mb low near 27N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 28N west of 93W. ASCAT data indicated gentle to moderate south-southeast winds west of the 85W. An upper-level trough shifting south- southeast with time over northeastern Mexico is supporting an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 24N west of 95W to within 80 nm inland the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds continue over the central and western Gulf, with wave heights in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast: Elsa will weaken to a tropical depression near 34.3N 80.9W Thu morning and remain inland at 37.3N 77.6W Thu evening, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 40.6N 73.3W Fri morning. Tropical Storm Elsa will reach 44.5N 68.0W Fri evening and become extratropical near Newfoundland Sat morning. Hazardous marine conditions over the NE Gulf will gradually improve through this evening. In the wake of Elsa, Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through at least tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... ASCAT pass this morning depicted fresh to strong E to NE winds in the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 75W and 76W. Strong east winds extend across the central Caribbean between 66W and 78W. Mainly fresh east winds are over the remainder of the central Caribbean, with seas of 7-10 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail with wave heights in the range of about 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N south along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast: Widespread fresh to strong trades will continue in the south-central Caribbean through late Fri. These winds may reach near gale force Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high center is located north of the area near 32N50W, with a ridge stretching southwest and then westward along 30N to near 78W. High pressure covers the Atlantic north of 15N east of 61W and north of 19N between 61W-77W. West of this ridge, broad cyclonic flow is indicated in the latest surface analysis to cover the far western waters, including the Florida peninsula, and is attributed to Tropical Storm Elsa over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida west-central coast. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with outer rain bands of Tropical Storm Elsa are over most of the central and northern Florida peninsula and the immediate coastal waters of northern and central Florida. These rain bands are lifting to the north. Very strong and gusty winds are possible with showers and thunderstorms in these bands. Strong to near gale force winds are near the Canary Islands. The gradient induced by the high pressure and the lower pressure of the tropics is allowing for a broad area of fresh northeasterly winds to exist north of 24N E of 25W and for generally gentle to moderate trades elsewhere south of 23N. Wave heights are in the range of 4-6 ft per latest altimeter data passes, except for higher heights of 6-8 ft from 21N E of 18W. For the forecast: Fresh southeast winds will continue off the northern and central Florida coasts through tonight as Tropical Storm Elsa, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida west coast, moves inland across northern Florida. Elsa is forecast to track northeastward across the southeastern U.S. through Thu allowing for these winds to diminish. High pressure will then build westward across the area through the Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the period. $$ MTorres