000 AXNT20 KNHC 070602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 07/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 27.9N 83.5W or 52 nm W of Tampa, Florida moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with higher gusts. Peak seas are 18 ft. Satellite imagery depicts numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 26N- 30N between 80-85W. Scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere from 25N-27N between 80W-82W. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Storm surge of 1-2 ft is probable from the Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 2-4 ft from the Ochlockonee River to the Aucilla river, 3-5 ft from the Aucilla River to Engelwood (including Tampa Bay), 2-4 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and 1-3 ft from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W Florida peninsula, and 2 to 4 inches for the rest of Florida. Rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Stay informed with your local NWS Weather Forecast Office and listen to possible instructions from you local emergency management office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at www.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 25W and 33W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 12N southward and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 09N between 47W and 54W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis across W Venezuela along 63W and south of 12N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 13N between 54W-65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 09N30W to 05N43W. A very small segment of the ITCZ extends from 02N47W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 03N to 12N east of 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and W Florida. See the Special Features section above for details. As of 07/0300 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf from 28N95W to 25N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N between 94W and 96W. The latest scatterometer data shows moderate S-SE winds near this trough. An upper level trough over NE Mexico is supporting an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the coast from Tampico, Mexico to the Texas/Mexico border. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail over the central and western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to weaken to be near 29.0N 83.1W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and move inland near 31.4N 82.5W Wed evening while continuing to weaken. Hazardous marine conditions will continue over most of the NE Gulf through Wed. In the wake of Elsa, Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area through the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest scatterometer data shows near-gale force E winds in the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 75W. Strong E winds extend to 14N between 71W and 77W. Fresh E winds encompass the remainder of the central Caribbean, with seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning Wed night and continue through late Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers associated with the distant outer bands of Tropical Storm Elsa are impacting the Bahamas. Strong to near- gale force winds are occurring between the Canary Islands. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb subtropical high centered near 34N42W. This supports mainly moderate trades across the basin, veering to SE in the W Atlantic. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 55W, and 5-8 ft east of 55W in open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh southeast winds will develop off the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as Elsa, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, moves inland across northern Florida. Elsa is forecast to track northeastward across the southeastern U.S.through Thu allowing for these winds to diminish. High pressure will then build westward across the area through the Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the period. $$ Mahoney