000 AXNT20 KNHC 052310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 22.7N 81.9W at 05/2100 UTC or 40 nm SE of Havana Cuba moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is near the center of Elsa over western Cuba and adjacent waters from 19N- 25N between 79W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with a feeder band is noted farther NE affecting south Florida and western Atlantic from 24N-29N between 74W-83W. Heavy rain might cause urban and river flooding, and even flash flooding in these areas. Stay up to date with the latest information from your local weather forecast office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 01N-17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 03N-07N between 15W-28W. Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-09N between 33W-45W. A third Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 59W from 10N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found between 07N-10N from 50W-61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the Senegal-Mauritania at 16N17W to near 08N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N39W to 03N50W. Aside from convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, there is no other significant convection. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for convection over the Florida Straits and peninsula associated with Tropical Storm Elsa. An upper-level trough is over the N Gulf near 30N92W, while a surface ridge is over the central along 25N. Convergent winds near the ridge axis are coupling with the trough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N and central W Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present across most of the basin, except locally fresh winds and seas up to 5 ft near thunderstorms. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will move to 24.1N 82.7W Tue morning, 26.1N 83.4W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 83.6W Wed morning, and inland to 30.6N 83.0W Wed afternoon. Expect for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the far eastern Gulf waters this evening and continuing through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north- central Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Elsa has made landfall over Cuba. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Fresh to near-gale winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present just E of Elsa, over the waters between western Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will move into the Straits of Florida near 24.1N 82.7W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds will continue south of Cuba through Tue morning and gradually improve as Elsa continues to move farther north away from the basin. Otherwise, widespread fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean by Tue and continue through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through the rest of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to the mid- Atlantic, while an upper-level trough is over the mid-Atlantic US coast. Convergent low-level SE to S winds, S of the front are enhanced by divergent winds related to the upper trough; resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the northern Bahamas to well E of the Florida coast near 74W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in this area. A large 1030 mb high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic continues to provide light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 25N between 30W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 13N to 25N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. As for the forecast W of 65W: Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Mon in response to a stationary front lingering N of the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Wed. Off the Florida coast, winds will become fresh to strong by Wed as the center of Elsa moves inland over northern Florida. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil conditions expected for the rest of the week. $$ ERA