000 AXNT20 KNHC 051113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 05/9600 UTC, is near 21.0N 79.9W or about 190 nm southeast of Havana, Cuba. ELSA is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical Storm Elsa is just south of central Cuba. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing wide banding features that consist of scattered moderate to strong type convection. These bands are noted within 180 nm of center in the E semicircle and within 150 nm of the center in the W semicircle. These bands appear to surround CDO feature that consists of rapidly developing scattered moderate to strong convection from 20N to 21N between 79W-81W. Elsa is forecast to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tue. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tue and on Wed. The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and surf. The rainfall is forecast to impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Mon through Wed, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wed into Thu, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, from 15N southward. It is moving westward at 10-kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm west of the wave from 05N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 11N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to 55W from 05N to 11N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 86W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 14N17W, to 10N22W, and 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W, to 04N48W. Aside from convection described above under Tropical Waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 36W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is well south of the monsoon trough within 60 nm of a line from 05N08N to 05N16W and to 05N24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near 32N74W to inland southeastern Georgia and continues westward to southern Louisiana and well into central Texas. Generally weak high pressure is present across the area. In the upper levels, broad- upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is present over the central and western Gulf areas from 25N to 28N between 87W-94W. This activity is being sustained by a rather sharp upper-level trough that extends from Mississippi southwestward to 25N92W and to near 20N96W. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa is just south of central Cuba at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will weaken slightly as it tracks across western and central Cuba today and over the Straits of Florida tonight with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will maintain intensity as it reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.9N 82.5W late tonight, then increase slightly in strength as it nears 25.9N 83.2 Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, reach to near 28.0N 83.4W late Tue night, then move inland to near 30.1N 83.0W Wed afternoon. Expect for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the far eastern Gulf waters beginning today continuing through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north- central Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Elsa is just south of central Cuba as of 5 AM EDT. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean along 86W. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is just south of western Cuba within 60 nm of 21N84W. As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 21.0N 79.9W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT is moving NW at 12 kt. Elsa will move across central and western Cuba today and emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight into Tue, and continue to pull away from the area Tue as it tracks over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south-central Caribbean by Tue and continue through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper-level diffluent wind flow is to the south of a stationary front that extends from near 32N74W to inland southeastern Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N to 32N between 69W-77W. An area of similar type convection is over and near the vicinity of the central and NW Bahamas from 22N-27N between 75W-80W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from Florida eastward. A high pressure ridge extends from a 1030 mb high located near 34N43W west-southwestward to 30N61W and to across central Florida. Strong-to-near gale force winds, and wave heights reaching to 7 ft are near the Canary Islands. Fresh-to-strong winds, and wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft are within 600 nm to the west of Africa from 15N to 25N. As for the forecast: Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Mon in response to a cold front moving N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front and N of 28N will diminish by this afternoon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move into the Straits of Florida tonight into Tue. Elsa is forecast to quickly move northeastward along the southeastern U.S coast Wed through Thu potentially bringing tropical force winds to the far northwest forecast waters. $$ MT/Aguirre