000 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 05 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 05/0600 UTC, is near 20.8N 79.6W. ELSA is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical Storm Elsa is in the coastal waters of Cuba, between SE Cuba and 80W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 170 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered strong is from 120 nm to 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, between 80W and NW Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side of Cuba. Widely scattered moderate is within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, on the northern side of Cuba. This precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys. The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and surf. Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 15N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 09N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from 11N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/101N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela border and 74W, and from 07N to 09N in Colombia between 74W and 77W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 10N in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Costa Rica to the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 14N17W, to 10N22W, and 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W, to 04N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 24N northward. A stationary front is inland, from SE Georgia to southern Mississippi, beyond central Texas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the central part of the Florida west coast, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Elsa is in the Caribbean Sea along the coast of Cuba, near 20.6N 79.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will weaken as it moves across western and central Cuba, and the Straits of Florida, on Monday and Monday night, with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt and maintain intensity as it reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25.1N 82.9W on Tue morning, to near 27.1N 83.2W Tue evening, then weaken slightly as it tracks northeastward to 29.2N 82.8W by early Wed with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and move inland to near 31.5N 81.6W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Expect for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the far eastern Gulf waters beginning Mon and lasting through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Elsa is in the coastal waters of Cuba, between SE Cuba and 80W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 170 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered strong is from 120 nm to 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, between 80W and NW Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side of Cuba. Widely scattered moderate is within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, on the northern side of Cuba. This precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 09N/101N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela border and 74W, and from 07N to 09N in Colombia between 74W and 77W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 10N in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Costa Rica to the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize. Tropical Storm Elsa is near 20.6N 79.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to just offshore the coast of Cuba near 21.9N 80.7W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, then weaken inland near 23.5N 82.1W with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will maintain intensity as it moves across the Straits of Florida Mon and Mon night and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25.1N 82.9W on Tue morning. Fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea by Tuesday, and continue through the rest of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluent wind flow is to the south of the 34N70W-to-SE Georgia stationary front. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 27N to 29N between 71W and 75W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 24N to 27N between 77W and 80W in parts of the NW Bahamas. This area of precipitation also is about 300 nm to the north of T.S. ELSA. An upper level trough is about 540 nm to the SE of Bermuda. The southernmost part of the trough reaches toward the NE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 22N to 27N between 35W and 44W, to the east of the remnants of a surface trough during the last 6 hours to 12 hours. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from Florida eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 34N43W, to 30N62W, to 27N71W, to the central part of the Florida west coast. Strong-to-near gale force winds, and sea heights reaching 7 feet, are near the Canary Islands. Fresh-to-strong winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are within 600 nm to the west of Africa from 15N to 25N. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Monday, in response to a cold front that will be moving to the N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds to the east of the front and N of 28N will diminish by Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move into the Straits of Florida, from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The center of Elsa is expected to move northeastward quickly, along the southeastern U.S.A. coast, from Wednesday through Thursday. This movement has the potential to bring tropical force winds to the far northwestern forecast waters, if the forecast track holds. $$ mt/ja