000 AXNT20 KNHC 041049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 18.1N 75.5W at 04/0900 UTC or 70 nm E of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 21N between 73W and 82W. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight re-strengthening is possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 14N with axis near 28W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 25W and 39W. A tropical wave extends from 0N to 10N with axis near 45W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 42W and 55W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and tstms are in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 04N30W to 08N36W to 06N43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and tstms are occuring from 02N to 10N E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds are across the entire basin with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. A stationary front extends from southern Georgia all the way westward to central Texas. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front N of 25N E of 94W. Tropical Storm Elsa near 18.1N 75.5W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to 19.5N 77.4W this afternoon, 21.5N 79.4W Mon morning, inland to 23.0N 81.0W Mon afternoon, 24.6N 82.2W Tue morning, 25.9N 82.8W Tue afternoon, and 27.8N 82.9W Wed morning. Elsa will move inland over near 33.2N 80.0W early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Elsa near 18.1N 75.5W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will move to 19.5N 77.4W this afternoon, 21.5N 79.4W Mon morning, inland to 23.0N 81.0W Mon afternoon, 24.6N 82.2W Tue morning, 25.9N 82.8W Tue afternoon, and 27.8N 82.9W Wed morning. Elsa will move inland near 33.2N 80.0W early Thu. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the western basin will move W of the region today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Atlantic high pressure will shift slightly eastward through Mon in response to a cold front moving N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front and N of 28N will diminish on Mon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move over portions of central and western Cuba today into Mon and the Straits of Florida by Mon afternoon. $$ Ramos