000 AXNT20 KNHC 031046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elsa is centered near 16.2N 69.0W at 03/0900 UTC or 170 nm ESE of Isla Beata Dominican Republic moving WNW at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 18N between 63W and 70W. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 20W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 10W and 26W. A tropical waves extends south of 10N with axis near 42W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 35W and 51W. A tropical wave extends S of 20N with axis near 76W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 20N between 74W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N26W to 07N32W. ITCZ is along 07N32W to 03N43W to 02N50W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue to shift east-southeastward through the weekend. Hurricane Elsa is forecast to move over portions of central and western Cuba Sun night and Mon, the Straits of Florida late Mon, then track over a portion of the eastern Gulf Tue before possibly moving inland central Florida late Tue. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Elsa near 16.2N 69.0W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 27 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Elsa will move to 17.5N 72.3W this afternoon, 19.0N 75.4W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 77.8W Sun afternoon, inland to 22.1N 79.7W Mon morning, 23.4N 81.2W Mon afternoon, and 24.7N 82.2W Tue morning. Elsa will change little in intensity as it moves near 28.2N 83.0W early Wed. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the central basin will move across the western Caribbean through Sun night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Atlantic high pressure will continue to shift southeastward through the weekend in response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of the area early next week. Hurricane Elsa is forecast to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola today, and move over portions of central and western Cuba Sun night and Mon and the Straits of Florida late Mon before entering the southeastern Gulf into Tue. $$ Ramos