000 AXNT20 KNHC 030607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 03 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane ELSA, at 03/0600 UTC, is near 15.5N 67.8W, or within 330 nm southeast of the coast of the Dominican Republic. ELSA is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 kt. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm SW quadrant and within 150 nm NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within 120 NM of the center in the NW and SE quadrants, within 130 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 24 feet. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides are possible as ELSA continues on its path. Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:widely scattered isolated strong within 360 nm east of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 10N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate isolated strong is within 3000 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N to 08N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N, within 370 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N, and from 18N southward from 83W westward in the waters that are to the north of Honduras. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N92W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 86W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, 10N25W, to 07N32W. ITCZ is along 07N32W, 06N39W, and from 03N42W to 50W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 02N northward from 07W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 23W and 31W, and from the ITCZ southward and 45W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N92W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 86W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This upper level cyclonic wind flow is related to the large scale cyclonic wind flow that also is in the Atlantic Ocean from Florida to South Carolina. A surface trough is inland, from east central Louisiana into central Texas. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, convective debris clouds, and dissipating/remnant rainshowers cover the waters that are from 27N northward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through central Cuba, toward the northwest and west, to the coast of Mexico at 24N/25N. A surface ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean near 23N to the central Gulf of Mexico, will continue to shift east-southeastward through the weekend. A SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough will continue to produce active weather through possibly late tonight. Hurricane Elsa, in the eastern Caribbean Sea, is forecast to move over parts of central and western Cuba on Sunday night and Monday, into the Straits of Florida late Monday, and then move into a part of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, before possibly moving inland in central Florida late on Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N, within 370 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N, and from 18N southward from 83W westward in the waters that are to the north of Honduras. An upper level inverted trough extends from Nicaragua northward, to the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward from 83W westward, in the waters that are to the north of Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia westward. Hurricane Elsa near 14.8N 66.3W 995 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Elsa will move to 16.1N 69.8W Sat morning, 17.6N 73.5W Sat evening, 19.0N 76.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.5N 78.5W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 80.4W Mon morning, and inland to 23.7N 81.7W Mon evening. Elsa will change little in intensity as it moves near 27.7N 82.9W late Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the central basin will move across the western Caribbean Sea through Sunday night, with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters that are to the east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Bahamas, from SE to NW, and elsewhere from 23N northward from 63W westward. Another upper level trough is about 700 nm to the ENE of Bermuda. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 50W and 65W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 28N27W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 30N56W, to 27N71W, to central Cuba. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will continue to shift southeastward through the weekend, in response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of the area early next week. Hurricane Elsa is in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsa is forecast to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late on Saturday or on Saturday night, and move to parts of central and western Cuba on Sunday night and Monday, and to the Straits of Florida late on Monday, before entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into Tuesday. $$ mt