000 AXNT20 KNHC 011009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 9.4N 48.8W at 01/0900 UTC or 750 nm ESE of the Windward Islands moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 12N between 43W and 52W. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west- northwest over the next several days. There is significant uncertainty in the track beyond 72 hours. Elsa is likely to intensity some over the next day or two. However, the fast forward motion could limit strengthening. Later in the forecast period, interactions with the high terrain in portions of the Great Antilles could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, today. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W S of 10N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 28N and 35W. The axis of a a tropical wave is near 64W S of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 19N between 60W and 68W. The axis of a tropical wave, which recently merged with another tropical wave previously to the W, is near 85W S of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. All significant convection in the vicinity of these features is associated with tropical waves and is described in the section above. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across most of the Gulf, with generally gentle winds aside from some moderate to locally fresh winds to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the waters west of 90W, and 2-3 ft east of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through the end of the week. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa track generally toward the basin across the northern and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend, and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section above for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, moving west toward the Windward Islands. Fresh winds prevail over much of the Caribbean, with the exception of gentle winds near Cuba and locally strong winds S of Puerto Rico in association with a tropical wave. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will move quickly into the central basin later this week. Locally heavy rainfall and reduced visibility will occur in its vicinity. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is near 9.4N 48.8W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Elsa will move to 10.3N 52.0W this afternoon, 11.7N 56.7W Fri morning, 13.2N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 14.9N 66.9W Sat morning, 16.7N 71.2W Sat afternoon, and 18.0N 74.5W Sun morning. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend, and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features Section above for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, moving west toward the Windward Islands. High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, with 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N54W. Fresh winds prevail north of the Antilles where the pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean is tighter. Fresh winds are noted of the coast of Africa north of 20N. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere south of 25N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range in the vicinity of the high center and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range outside of Tropical Storm Elsa. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is near 9.4N 48.8W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Elsa will move to 10.3N 52.0W this afternoon, 11.7N 56.7W Fri morning, 13.2N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 14.9N 66.9W Sat morning, 16.7N 71.2W Sat afternoon, and 18.0N 74.5W Sun morning. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend, and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon. $$ KONARIK