000 AXNT20 KNHC 010350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently developed Tropical Depression Five is centered near 9.6N 46.3W at 01/0300 UTC or 890 nm ESE of the Windward Islands moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 40W and 50W. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west- northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and begin to move more poleward and slow down. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity today, and continue to intensify to near 50 kt in 36 hours. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W south of 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 27W and 32W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 19N between 58W and 65W. The wave will continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the Lesser Antilles overnight. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 22N. This wave is moving very slowly and will merge with the wave to its east overnight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. Aside from convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 32W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure prevailing across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere except just north of the Yucatan peninsula where fresh to locally strong winds are noted. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the waters west of 90W, and 2-3 ft east of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh east to southeast winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five is near 9.6N 46.3W at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 20 kt. The system is forecast to pass near Cuba this weekend as a tropical storm. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as well as over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean is helping generate fresh to strong winds over the NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, a tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will move quickly into the central basin later this week. Locally heavy rainfall and reduced visibility will occur over the Lesser Antilles into Thu morning. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five is near 9.6N 46.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.5N 49.6W Thu morning, move to 11.7N 54.4W Thu evening, 13.0N 59.6W Fri morning, 14.7N 65.0W Fri evening, 16.5N 69.8W Sat morning, and 18.3N 73.8W Sat evening. The system will remain a tropical storm as it passes near Cuba through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on recently developed T.D. Five. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, with 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of the lesser Antilles where the pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean is tighter. Fresh to strong winds are noted of the coast of Africa north of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are also noted north of Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere south o5 25N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range in the vicinity of the high center and 3-5 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-8 ft range outside of T.D. Five. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast waters west of 65W the remainder of the week. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five near 9.6N 46.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.5N 49.6W Thu morning, move to 11.7N 54.4W Thu evening, 13.0N 59.6W Fri morning, 14.7N 65.0W Fri evening, 16.5N 69.8W Sat morning, and 18.3N 73.8W Sat evening. The system will remain a tropical storm as it passes near Cuba through the weekend. $$ AL