000 AXNT20 KNHC 010236 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Five is centered near 9.6N 43.7W at 30/2100 UTC or 1040 nm E of the Windward Islands moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A tropical wave is associated with this area, near 43W/44W south of 18N in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 11N between 43W and 50W. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Fri in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Fri. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W south of 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 27W and 32W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 19N between 58W and 65W. The wave will continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the Lesser Antilles overnight. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the far SW Caribbean where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 22N. This wave is moving very slowly and will merge with the wave to its east overnight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 10N23W to 07N28W. It resumes from 04N32W to 06N40W. It resumes from 07N48W to 05N53W. Aside from convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is noted from02N to 07N between 32W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, with high pressure prevailing across the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere except just north of the Yucatan peninsula where fresh to locally string winds are noted. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the waters west of 90W, and 2-3 ft east of 90W. For the forecast, a CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Low pressure at 1011 mb is located in the Gulf of Honduras near 16.5N88W. Nearby convection is described in the tropical waves section above. Fresh to near gale force E trades are over the south-central Caribbean along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. For the forecast, refer to the progress and details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, and for details on a vigorous tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 27N between 66W and 80W including across the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. Divergent flow south of an upper-level trough near the region is supporting this convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow prevails across the waters west of 65W, except gentle to moderate north of 27N between 65W and 70W. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range west of 65W to the Bahamas, except 3 to 4 ft north of 27N between 65W and 70W. To the east, 1024 mb high pressure is located near 28N48W with a ridge axis extending to northwest of the area. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N31W to 28N38W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under the ridge across the waters north of 26N between 25W and 65W, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere south of 26N and north of the convergence zone, along with 5 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are from 19N to 30N, west of the coast of Africa to 20W due to a locally tight pressure gradient. For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected just north of Hispaniola Thu night through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge. Also, refer to the progress and details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. $$ AL