000 AXNT20 KNHC 291000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Danny are centered near 33.0N 83.0W at 29/0900 UTC or 80 nm ESE of Atlanta Georgia moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1019 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over central Georgia, with no significant precipitation over marine areas. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate convection has developed from 0N to 10N between 25W and 35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, roughly 900 miles E of the Lesser Antilles, from 17N southward, moving W at 20 kt. A broad 1010 mb low pressure center is along this wave near 12N. Disorganized but numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm of the low pressure center in all quadrants. Some slow development of this feature is possible later this week and weekend while it continues to move W to WNW at 15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wed night. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from the Cayman Islands southward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave, aided by a mid to upper level trough in the northwest Caribbean, is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 20N between 79W and 85W, as well as portions of Honduras. A tropical wave that was producing convection over coastal areas of southern Mexico and portions of northern Central America has moved into the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 09N25W to the 1010 mb low pressure near 12N49W, described above. Significant convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with tropical waves, detailed in the section above. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low pressure centered near the Florida Panhandle is inducing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm of the Florida coast. A mid and upper level trough along the eastern Mexico coast is also producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the Mexican coast, offshore the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection encompasses the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE prevail over the basin, with the slightly higher winds over the western Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf. Deep layer ridging, centered NE of the area, will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh E to SE fresh winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan Peninsula through Sat night due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection in the basin is associated with the tropical wave depicted in the above section. Winds are generally moderate to fresh across the basin, with an area of strong east winds in the southern central Caribbean N of Colombia. Another area of locally strong winds is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the basin are generally 4 to 6 ft, but an area of 7 to 9 ft seas are observed where winds are strongest, off the Colombian coast. Convection that had been associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches across Costa Rica and into the far SW Caribbean to around 74W at the coast of Colombia has diminished. Winds and seas will increase today as high pressure to the northern builds toward the area. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night, and Puerto Rico on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is noted from 31N37W to 27N52W to 30N60W. Precipitation previously associated with this weakening boundary has diminished, although there remains a cluster of scattered moderate convection from 22N to 27N between 62W and 69W. This activity is being producing by a weakening upper level trough over the region. Elsewhere across the basin, weather N of 20N is being dominated by high pressures centered NE of the Bahamas and to the N of the Canary Islands. This is leading to generally gentle winds and seas less than 6 ft. To the S of 20N, fresh trade winds prevail and seas average 5 to 7 ft. The Atlantic ridge will build westward and dominate the forecast waters the remainder of the week. Fresh winds are expected just N of Hispaniola at night beginning Wed night. A tropical wave will likely approach areas south and east of the Bahamas late in the week. $$ KONARIK