000 AXNT20 KNHC 281000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 31N77W, about 300 nm ESE of the Georgia coast. Disorganized numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted displaced N and W of the center due to strong upper level wind shear. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring N of 29N between 73W and 78W, with strong mainly SE winds being observed in this same area. The low is forecast to move quickly WNW at 10 to 20 mph, crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream later this morning. There is potential this low develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina this evening, thus tropical storm warnings may be required for portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Regardless of developing, locally heavy rainfall can be expected along the immediate coasts and adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on this afternoon, if necessary. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 17W and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 17N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Broad low pressure associated with this tropical wave is centered near 12N39W at 1009 mb. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Fresh E winds and seas of up to 8 ft accompany this wave, north of the low center. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while the system moves quickly W at 15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wed or Wed night. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, approaching the Lesser Antilles. It is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Fresh E winds are occurring in the wake of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W Cuba southward, approaching Jamaica, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in and near Jamaica and Haiti, as well as from 13N to 18N between 75W and 83W. In the wake of this wave, fresh to locally strong E winds are occurring in the south central Caribbean Seas. A tropical wave that has crossed much of Central America and into the eastern Pacific extends northward into the Bay of Campeche along 93W, S of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection encompasses the Bay of Campeche and adjacent portions of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N25W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N39W, described in the tropical wave section above. The monsoon trough then continues to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 06N55W, near the French Guiana-Suriname border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends along the monsoon trough S of 10N and E of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough along the Texas coast has moved inland overnight. In its wake, mid and upper level cyclonic flow over much of the basin is aiding in a broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. Winds over the western Gulf are moderate to fresh with gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft in the east. Generally moderate SE winds will prevail through late week as the basin resides between a trough over the far SW Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described above, no significant showers and thunderstorms are occurring. Winds are mainly gentle to to moderate in the NW Caribbean, moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean, and fresh in the central Caribbean. Locally strong winds are occurring just off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas average 2 to 4 ft in the western Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection associated with this tough has diminished overnight. The tropical wave currently approaching Jamaica will move west across the basin into tonight. Winds and seas will increase as high pressure builds over the basin following the tropical wave. Another robust tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed or Thu, bringing gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms to portions of the eastern Caribbean late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure north of the Bahamas that has a potential for tropical development today. A slow-moving cold front extends from 32N30W to 29N45W to 32N60W, within scattered moderate convection along it and within 30 nm of its boundary. South of the front, gentle winds prevail N of 25N, then moderate to fresh trades dominate to the south. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the area of lighter winds, and 6 to 8 ft where trades are highest. A weak upper-level low is inducing scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 62W and 72W. A broad area of Saharan dust is indicated on satellite generally S of 25N and E of 40W. A tropical wave may approach areas south and east of the Bahamas late in the week, otherwise for areas W of 65W, expect moderate SE flow as high pressures builds southward to the E. $$ KONARIK