000 AXNT20 KNHC 271006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 10N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 30W and 36W. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week, while it moves a little faster toward the west and then west-northwest about 20 mph. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 17N southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. Fresh winds are within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 50W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from Hispaniola southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in and near Puerto Rico, as well as from 11N to 15N between 71W and 77W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W, mainly over the Gulf of Honduras and entering Central America, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent portions of Honduras and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N37W and 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 13N to the E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough stretches from 25N89W to 20N92W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 26N between 88W and 92W. Moderate to locally fresh winds have been observed to the east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of the trough. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in much of the Gulf waters, except the SW Gulf where the sea heights are in the range of 2 feet to 3 feet. The trough will move west through the NW Gulf through tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Otherwise, gentle to moderate SE winds will persist through the middle of the week between a trough over the far southwest Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection over the Caribbean is primarily associated with the tropical waves described above. A relatively weak pressure gradient spans the Caribbean Sea with moderate trades dominating. The exception is over the SE Caribbean between 11N and 15N between 61W and 66W, where fresh to locally strong E winds are occurring. The sea heights have been in the range of 3 feet to 5 feet in the central and eastern sections, with 2 feet to 3 feet covering the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W in Colombia, to 11N85W in northern Costa Rica, to beyond 10N90W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 15N and W of 75W. The tropical wave currently south of Haiti will move westward across the basin through Mon. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras early week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the wake of the tropical wave. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 30N66W to 23N70W. A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is associated with this trough from 20N to 30N between 62W and 72W. Strong wind is located just east of the trough, N of 27N between 62W and 66W, with fresh wind elsewhere surrounding the trough. Seas in this area average 5 to 7 ft. Surface pressures remain relatively high in the Atlantic Ocean, near the surface trough. Significant development of this system is not anticipated, while it moves westward and then west-northwestward about 15 mph during the next few days. It is expected to reach the coast of the southeastern United States late on Monday. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. A cold front is to the north of the area, along 31N/33N between 30W and 59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm ahead of this front. Away from the aforementioned trough, generally moderate winds prevail, although fresh trade winds are occurring S of 22N and high pressure is leading to light to gentle winds N of 25N and E of 55W. Sea heights of 3-5 feet cover the waters that are from 20N northward, and range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward. The trough SW of Bermuda will move west across the area through Mon night, bringing showers and thunderstorms and locally strong winds. This will be followed by weak high pressure through the middle of next week. $$ KONARIK