000 AXNT20 KNHC 262128 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W. A surface low pressure of 1009 mb is centered where the wave and monsoon trough intersect. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 14N between 24W to 32W. Some slow development of the low will be possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves generally westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from 20N southward and moving W near 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba southward and moving W near 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W to low pres near 09N28W to 06N42W. Aside from convention noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N E of 20W to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is located over the Gulf from 27N89W to 20N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted east of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds west of the trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over much of the Gulf waters, except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range. For the forecast, a trough over the south-central Gulf will move west through the NW Gulf through late Sun, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 25N70W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the trough. Elsewhere moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the discussion waters. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the waters north of 20N, and 4-6 ft south of 20N. For the forecast W of 65W, the trough north of 24N between 65W and 70W will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure through the middle of next week. $$ AL