000 AXNT20 KNHC 260926 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 11N east of 32W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 40W and 44W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 07N to 09N between 52W and 56W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W from Puerto Rico southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection behind this wave is impacting waters around the Leeward Islands. The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 05N22W to 05N37W. A segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 04N44W to 04N50W. Aside from convection associated with the previous described tropical waves, activity associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ has diminished this morning. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough located over the central Gulf from 26N87W to 21N90W is inducing scattered moderate convection over mainly the SE Gulf from 22N to 27W between 82W and 88W. Generally moderate SE winds prevail over the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, highest close to the Texas coast. For the forecast, the trough will move west through the NW Gulf through the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to mid week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... Due to a relatively weak pressure gradient, moderate trades are occurring over most of the basin, except gentle SE winds in the NW Caribbean and S of 11N. Seas average 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti and the Windward Passage. An additional area of scattered moderate convection, associated with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted south of 12N between the Colombia/Venezuela border and 80W. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the wake of the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough off the N Florida coast from 30N78W to 28N78W is no longer producing any significant convection. To the east, a deep layer trough from 30N62W to 26N65W is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 30N between 60W and 67W. Fresh E winds are occurring with this trough as well. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail, although southwest of the Canary Islands, fresh NE winds are observed. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across much of the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are present SW of the Canary Islands in the area of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 65W, the trough S of Bermuda will move across the region through Tue, followed by weak high pressure through the middle of next week. Generally moderate east wind will prevail. $$ KONARIK