000 AXNT20 KNHC 251741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave between the African coast and Cabo Verde Islands is along 20W/21W from 16N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A low pressure centered is embedded within this wave near 08N21W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 12N E of 28W. This tropical wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 17N southward and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 08N between 37W and 41W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 15N southward and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen mainly W of the wave axis from 06N to 11N between 50W and 57W, just north of French Guyana and Suriname. A Caribbean tropical wave is W of the Lesser Antilles along 62W from 18N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found over northern Venezuela and Guyana from 06N to 11N between 58W and 65W. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward crossing Panama. The wave is moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea from 09N to 14N between 76W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N16W to 05N26W to 04N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N41W to 05N48W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, no significant convection is occurring along these features. GULF OF MEXICO... The diurnal trough that developed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is now over the Bay of Campeche. This feature is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Veracruz area. This trough is also producing moderate to fresh E-ENE winds over the Bay of Campeche W of 94W. A surface trough over the southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Channel near 24N86W is coupling with an upper-level low near the Big Bend area at 29N84W to produce scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the SE Gulf and western Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present near these showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle E to SE winds are noted over the northern Gulf. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are found over western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft across the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected through early next week. A trough over the Yucatan Channel will move through the west central Gulf by Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface trough mentioned in the Gulf of Mexico section is also producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and just south of western Cuba. Modest pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of Cuba and the Colombian low is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds will return to the south-central Caribbean by Mon and to the Gulf of Honduras Tue. A tropical wave located just W of the Lesser Antilles will move across the central Caribbean Sun and enter the western Caribbean early next week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will follow the tropical wave over the Windward Islands and adjacent waters through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over central and northern Florida coast is interacting with a dying front off coast of Georgia near 31N80W to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N and west of 79W. Another surface trough southeast of Bermuda near 29N60W is coupling with an upper-level low near 28N62W to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 31N between 52W and 63W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen just S of Bermuda N of 26N between 53W and 74W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present near and NW of the Canary Islands from 14N to 22N between 21W and 31W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a few showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida along a stalled frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh E winds are ongoing across the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere over open waters. The front will dissipate through tonight. A trough east of the area will move across the region Sat through early next week. $$ GR/PC