374 AXNT20 KNHC 221731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 21W, from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 19W and 28W. Another tropical wave extends along 38W from 11N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 07N. A third tropical wave runs along 53W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 48W and 58W. Enhanced showers and tstorms are possible over the SE Caribbean later this week. A fourth tropical wave is along 88W, from the western Gulf of Honduras southward to the east Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection over the southwest Caribbean is more related to the monsoon trough, described in the Caribbean section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W to 06N34W. The ITCZ continues from 06N34W to 05N37W and then west of a tropical wave from 05N40W to 07N52W. Scattered showers are seen within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 43W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is located just inland over Louisiana and Texas. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms over the far northwest Gulf of Mexico out ahead of the frontal system, north of 27N and west of 92W. A second area of thunderstorms is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northwest of 28N and east of 89W. A surface ridge extends across the central and southern Gulf of Mexico from the Atlantic. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE to S winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula with generally moderately wind speeds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4 to 5 feet in the western Gulf of Mexico and 2 to 3 feet in the eastern Gulf. A ridge from the Atlantic will continue to dominate the Gulf region over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Puerto Rico and eastern Cuba, including Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen in the southwest Caribbean south of 13.5N west of 76W in association with the monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. Fresh winds may also be occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6 to 8 feet over the central Caribbean with 4 to 6-foot seas elsewhere. The Atlantic high pressure combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. An active tropical wave with axis now along 53W is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu. Fresh NE winds are noted ahead of the wave axis. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. West of 55W: A 1025 mb high near 29N59W extends surface ridging towards the northwest Bahamas. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh southerly winds offshore north Florida and fresh trade winds north of Puerto Rico. Winds become gentle closer to the high pressure. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed between Andros Island Bahamas and Miami Florida. East of 55W: A surface trough is from 31N45W to 21N43W. An upper- level low near 31N48W is inducing scattered showers north of 30N between 43W and 48W. Ridging prevails across the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. Winds near the coast of Morocco are strong to near-gale force from the north. Seas of 3 to 5 feet prevail across the subtropical Atlantic north of 23N with 5 to 7 ft seas across the tropical Atlantic. Forecast west of 65W: Fresh S to SW winds are expected across the waters off NE Florida through tonight, ahead of a frontal boundary located over the southeastern United States. Expect scattered showers and tstorms this afternoon and evening in waters to the east of northern Florida. A surface ridge will continue to dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the end of the week. $$ Hagen/Chan/Nepaul