000 AXNT20 KNHC 212327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 37.5N 72.1W at 21/2100 UTC or 240 nm SSW of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE at 25 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. An east- northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, Claudette will move across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean tonight, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some weakening is expected on Tuesday, and Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. For marine information, please see products from the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 17W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 14W and 23W. Strong winds were detected within this area of convection by a scatterometer pass. A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 36W from 02N-13N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. At this time, no convection is noted with this tropical wave. A tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 03N to 14N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 46W and 58W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from 09N to 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N17W to 06N21W to 06N32W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N37W to 06N45W and from 06N49W to the border of Suriname and French Guiana near 06N55W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging covers the eastern half of the basin while low pressure has built W of 90W. Upper-level diffluent flow over the north-central Gulf continue to support heavy showers and tstms N of 25N between the Florida Big Bend and Louisiana offshore waters. Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin W of 87W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean this evening, supporting the continuation of showers and tstms in Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, and western Puerto Rico. An upper level low to the west of this wave supports similar shower activity over Jamaica and portions of Cuba. Aside from the convection, the wave is supporting fresh to locally strong easterlies from the coast of Hispaniola to the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range over this region with the highest seas in the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strongs winds are pulsing this evening. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Hispaniola along 72W will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today and Tue increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Wed and Thu. Another tropical wave is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Claudette located N of the forecast waters. The Azores high dominates the entire tropical Atlantic and support moderate to fresh easterlies S of 24N and W of 55W. However, locally strong winds are happening over Hispaniola adjacent waters. Over the far eastern Atlantic, NE fresh winds are between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh S to SW winds are expected through late today over waters N of 30N W of 70W due to the pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the Windward Passage through the end of the week. $$ Ramos