000 AXNT20 KNHC 211735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 37.0N 75.0W at 21/1500 UTC or 80 nm S of Ocean City, Maryland moving ENE at 24 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the system will cross into the western Atlantic Ocean later this morning, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some additional slight strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean today. Claudette is forecast to become a post- tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. For marine information, please see products from the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 16W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 15N east of 21W. Strong winds were detected within this area of convection by a scatterometer pass. A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 35W from 02N-13N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. At this time, no convection is noted with this tropical wave. A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 03N to 14N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 47W and 50W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 71.5W from 09N to 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 07N20W to 06N30W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N35W to 07N44W and from 06N47W to the border of Suriname and French Guiana near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Upper level divergence over the N Gulf is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 26N between the Florida and Texas coasts. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh SE-S winds across the gulf waters. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except in the NW Gulf from 94W to the Texas Coast where seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the section above for more details on the tropical wave moving through the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 13N between 78W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This area of convection is supported by the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, located over Panama and NW Colombia. In the central Caribbean, strong winds were shown by the latest scatterometer data from the coast of Colombia north to 14N between 72W and 77W. These strong winds are a result of the pressure gradient between the Bermuda/Azores high and the lower pressure associated with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough and tropical wave. This pressure gradient also supports moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean where there are gentle to moderate SW winds. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft, except 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean with the area of fresh to strong winds. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Hispaniola along 71W will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today enhancing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Claudette. Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The Bermuda/Azores highs centered near 28N60W and 30N47W dominate the entire tropical Atlantic and support mainly moderate return flow south of 23N with light to gentle return flow north of 23N within the discussion waters. A surface trough extends from 25N39W to 31N42W, with no convection noted at this time. Scattered showers are noted from the Bahamas north to 31N between 77W and the Atlantic coast of Florida. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Bahamas and off the coast of S Florida. Elsewhere, seas are 5-8 ft throughout the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters N of 29N today due to the pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the Windward Passage through the end of the week. $$ Mahoney