000 AXNT20 KNHC 211046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 35.6N 77.6W at 21/0900 UTC or 60 nm ESE of Raleigh North Carolina moving ENE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the system will cross into the western Atlantic Ocean this morning, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some additional strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean today. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced to the map, with axis analyzed along 16W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-15N and east of 20W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 34W from 01N-13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. At this time, no convection is related to this feature. A tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 04N to 14N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-12N between 42W-49W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 70W from 09N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near 12N16W to 07N22W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N46W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N W of 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers are noted east of 92W, in the periphery of the now T.S. Claudette. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the gulf waters. Seas range between 3 to 5 ft. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave along 70W is described in the section above. The pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure associated with the tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the eastern half of the basin, with fresh to strong winds occurring over the south-central waters. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds pulse to fresh to strong. The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night. A tropical wave along 70W will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The now T.S. Claudette continues moving ENE through North Carolina, remaining north of the area. However, rainbands are impacting the area N of 29N and W of 75W. The Azores high extends a ridge axis into the area and supports moderate to fresh return flow. Light to gentle variable winds are across the central Atlantic while a stronger pressure gradient due to lower pressure over northern Africa supports moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Atlantic E of 35W. For the forecast west of 65W, the surface ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters N of 29N today due to the pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the Windward Passage through the end of the week. $$ ERA