000 AXNT20 KNHC 191741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Claudette: Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 31.8N 88.6W at 19/1800 UTC or 70 nm NNW of Mobile Alabama moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection extends outward up to 330 nm in the east semicircle. A tail of scattered moderate to strong convection extends along a line that is 60 nm wide from 30N86W to 28N87W to 27N91W to 24N94W. Recent buoy observations offshore of Mississippi through the western Florida Panhandle indicate that S winds around 30 kt and seas as high as 13 ft are still occurring north of 28.5N. Winds of 25 kt and seas of 10 ft or higher will continue offshore Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight, before diminishing Sunday. Claudette is expected to turn toward the NE later today, followed by a turn to the ENE tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic on Monday. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, but then become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. Claudette is expected to produce very heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Northerly gales are occurring in a small area off the coast of Agadir Morocco from 30N-31N between 09.5W and 11W. According to the forecast from Meteo France, the gales will continue through 20/0000 UTC tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between 29W-41W. The axis of a well-defined Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N59W to 05N61W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 330 nm either side of the wave axis from 10N-16N, including near Dominica and near Trinidad. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is mainly confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 11.5N, and also near the NE coast of Honduras. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86/87W from 19N southward, moving W at less than 5 kt. Isolated showers are present in the vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N19W to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 08N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N40W to 03N48W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, an area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 04N-09N, east of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 20W-25W. Scattered showers are near the ITCZ between 42W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Claudette and the convection occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT pass shows that light to gentle winds cover the western Gulf, west of 94.5W. Moderate SE to S winds cover the southeastern and south-central Gulf of Mexico. Wind speeds are fresh north of 26N, closer to Claudette. Seas are 4-5 ft in the west-central Gulf and 2-3 ft in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, conditions in the NE Gulf related to Claudette will persist through tonight and subside Sunday. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Claudette tonight into early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring near the tropical waves, described above in the tropical waves section. No other significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh trades elsewhere over the central Caribbean between 67W-81W, south of 18N. Moderate to fresh winds cover the E Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate ESE winds are over the far NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft over most of the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday morning. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical wave currently along 79W will continue to move W across the basin today and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity. A well defined tropical wave is reaching the Lesser Antilles now and will increase the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W to 30N66W. A weakening stationary front continues from 30N66W to 31N70W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N60W to 23N68W to 26N73W. Isolated light showers are around the periphery of the upper-trough, and extend east of Florida, over the Bahamas, north of Hispaniola and north of 23N between 56W-64W. At the surface, high pressure ridging and light to gentle winds generally prevail north of 26N and west of 62W, with seas of 3-4 ft. Farther south, moderate wind speeds and seas of 5-6 ft are north of Puerto Rico. Farther east, a 1028 mb surface high pressure is near 32N45W. A 1021 mb low near 28N27W extends a cold front from the low to 26N30W to 30N34W. Fresh winds and 7-8 ft seas are on the north side of this low pressure. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N45W to 21N52W. Scattered showers are seen east of the upper-trough axis, within 60 nm either side of a line from 31N42W to 28N43W to 24N47W. A recent ASCAT pass shows light to moderate winds across the basin west of 32W, from 24N-31N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6-7 ft. See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning near the coast of Morocco. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over the Hispaniola adjacent waters, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through Wed night. $$ Hagen