000 AXNT20 KNHC 182200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 27.9N 91.2W at 18/2100 UTC or 110 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N to 29N between 85W and 91W. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is forecast. Slight intensification is possible before the system makes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 3W from 14N southward, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 30W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 50W and 57W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 20N southward, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present over and near Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 10N18W to 06N20W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N35W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves section, Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. A surface trough extends along the Potential Tropical Cyclone Three from 29N90W to 23N93W. Outside of the winds associated to PTC Three, generally fresh SE winds are occurring over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle to moderate N winds over the western basin. Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-5 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in the central Gulf. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three near 27.9N 91.2W 1006 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Three will move to 29.5N 90.8W Sat morning, inland to 31.4N 89.4W Sat afternoon, inland to 32.8N 87.4W Sun morning, inland to 33.8N 84.9W Sun afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 34.7N 81.9W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. The majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and tstms are expected to occur north and east of Three through Sat morning. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from SE Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough south of 13N between 74W and 83W. Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters. For the forecast, The Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical wave currently located in the central Caribbean will continue to move W across the Caribbean through Sun enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles by Sat night increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A high pressure ridge prevails over the western Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 24N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range west of 75W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere north of 22N. South of 22N, Seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 65W, a trough will move eastward across the northern forecast waters through tonight. Then, a ridge will dominate the area the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters during the forecast period. $$ AL