000 AXNT20 KNHC 181638 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 26.5N 91.1W at 18/1500 UTC or 190 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 24N to 31N between 86W and 91W. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A slow NE motion across the SE U.S. is likely after landfall through the weekend. Some strengthening is forecast and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the central or northern Gulf of Mexico later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 31W from 18N southward, and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N between 28W and 35W. Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 51W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 46W and 52W. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed near 71W from 21N southward into Venezuela, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present over and near Hispaniola Another Caribbean tropical wave axis has moved into Central America this morning, causing associated convection to move inland. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 10N18W. Segments of the ITCZ continue westward from 10N18W to 07N22W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N32W to 04N46W. Aside from the convection described with the tropical waves in the section above, no significant convection is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. A surface trough extends along the Potential Tropical Cyclone Three from 27N89W to 22N93W. Generally fresh SE winds are occurring over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle to moderate N winds over the western basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Bay of Campeche from 18N to 23N between 91W to 97W. A previously stationary front along the northern Gulf has lifted inland as a warm front, with associated convection also now inland. Seas across the Gulf are mainly in the 3-5 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in the central Gulf. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three near 26.5N 91.1W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Three will move to 28.2N 90.9W this evening, inland to 30.3N 90.3W Sat morning, inland to 32.1N 88.9W Sat evening, inland to 33.4N 86.4W Sun morning, become a remnant low and move to 34.5N 83.8W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. The majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and tstms are expected to occur north and east of Three through Sat morning. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from SE Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough south of 13N between 74W to 83W. Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the south central Caribbean, strongest N of the Colombian and Venezuelan coasts to 15N, between 68W and 76W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft throughout the basin, except 6-9 ft near the area of strong winds off in the south central Caribbean. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades, scattered tstms and squalls will follow a tropical wave currently located along 70W. The wave will move W across the Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. S of a stationary front that stretches N of the region, scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 25N and W of 60W. To the east, a surface ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area. Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N west of 40W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except from 18N to 24N between the west coast of Africa and 24W where fresh N-NE winds persist due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in this area of fresh winds. In the Bahamas, seas are 2-4 ft. Outside of these areas, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the waters south of 22N, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas north of 22N. For the forecast west of 65W, a trough will move eastward across the northern forecast waters through tonight. Then, a ridge will dominate the area the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters during the forecast period. $$ KONARIK