000 AXNT20 KNHC 180534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered near 23.5N 92.2W at 18/0300 UTC or 378 nm S of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. At this time, scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from the Yucatan Channel to the northern Gulf coast, 20N-29N and east of 90W. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north- central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 27W from the Cabo Verde islands near 17N southward, and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N between 23W and 31W. Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 46W from 18N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 13N between 44W and 50W. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed near 66W from 19N southward into Venezuela, and is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 18N between 60W and 70W. Stronger thunderstorms might produce fresh gusty winds across the Lesser Antilles. Another Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 83W from 18N southward over Costa Rica, and is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident along the coasts of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica mainly in association with the monsoon trough and currently extending along 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 10N17W. Segments of the ITCZ continue westward from 10N17W to 07N22W, then resumes west of two tropical waves from 05N31W to 05N42W, and from 06N49W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection described with the tropical waves in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 30W to 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. A surface trough extends northeastward from the Potential Tropical Cyclone Three near, 22N92W. Fresh to strong winds were detected by the latest scatterometer passes north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N to 27N and east of 90W. Aided by upper-level divergent flow, scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring from the Yucatan Channel north to to the Florida Gulf coast near 29N and East of 90W. Scattered showers are also noted along the western Gulf coast from 20N-25N between 94W-97W. A stationary front stretches westward across the northeastern Gulf to the Texas coast. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted in the northern Gulf north of 26N. In the Bay of Campeche, winds shift cyclonically to S around the broad low pressure. Seas are mainly in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft in the south-central Gulf and southeast Gulf. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move northward and become better organized overnight, and expected to become a tropical depression Fri morning near 25.0N 92.4W, reach 27.2N 92.4W Fri evening as a tropical storm, then move inland near 29.8N 91.1W Sat morning before accelerating off to the NE. Majority of strongest winds and frequent squalls and thunderstorms are expected to occur north and east of Three. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in the wake of Three Sat night into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Colombia west Across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong Convection is noted along the monsoon trough south of 11N between 75W to 81W. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted from the Gulf of Honduras north along the Yucatan Channel to western Cuba. Fresh to strong tradewinds were detected by the latest scatterometer pass in the south central Caribbean. The strongest winds extend from the coast of Colombia north to 16N between 70W and 77W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft throughout the basin, except 6-9 ft in the area of strong winds off in the south central Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E central Atlc W-SW to central Florida and will weaken north of the area through Fri. This ridge will combine with lower pressure over Venezuela and Colombia to support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras during the weekend and through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades, scattered tstorms and squalls will accompany a tropical wave along 67W tonight as it moves W across the Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Diffluent flow aloft continues to support scattered moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic mainly north of 25N and west of 66W. To the east, a surface ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area. Fresh SW winds are occurring in the W Atlantic north of 28N between 68W and 75W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N west of 45W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except from 18N to 24N between the west coast of Africa and 24W where fresh N-NE winds persist due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in this area of fresh winds. In the Bahamas, seas are 2-4 ft. Outside of these areas, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the waters south of 22N, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas north of 22N. For the forecast west of 65W, Atlc high pressure will retreat eastward tonight allowing a trough to move through the northern forecast waters through Fri. High pressure will then return to the area over the weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters during the forecast period and over Puerto Rico adjacent waters tonight. $$ MTorres