000 AXNT20 KNHC 141205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a well- defined low pressure system located about 80 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development by midweek. This low has a high potential for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For marine information, please see products issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at www.ocean.weather.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 14W and inland over west Africa from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N between 10W and 26W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W and from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave however rain showers are likely from 07N to 16N between 28W and 39W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave from 02N to 07N between 31W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 58W and 64W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W from 18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Adjacent deep convection associated with the eastern Pacific extension of the monsoon trough is described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near new to 07N35W to 04N45W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N45W to the coast of South America near 04N51W. No additional convection other than the convection described in the tropical waves section above is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad low pressure area of 1010 mb is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. A surface trough extends northward from 23N97W through the low to 18N93W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90-120 nm either side of the trough. A surface trough extends from the northern Florida Peninsula near 30N82W to across the northern Gulf near 28N86W, continuing as an outflow boundary to near the Texas/Louisiana border near 29N94W. A line of thunderstorms extends along the outflow boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough across the eastern Gulf and across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula. A ridge of high pressure extends from the SW N Atlantic across Cuba to the across the central Gulf to the central Texas coast. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin, except higher in and near any convection. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a potential to slowly develop during the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere in the basin, except gentle to moderate in the lee of Cuba and also in the SW Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Carribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. The eastern Pacific extension of the monsoon trough stretches across central Costa Rica to the SW Caribbean along 11N to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 73W and 84W. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean today and cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean at the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more details on a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras. A stationary front extends from the 1008 mb low pressure north of the area and south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.5N76W to near the Georgia/Florida border. A pre-frontal trough reaches from 32N77W to 29N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted north of 28N between 77W and 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend across the Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. A 1030 mb high pressure center is located north of the area near Azores 40N27W with a ridge axis reaching well southwest-west through 31N46W to near the Straits of Florida and central Cuba. Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow is noted between 65W and 77W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 22N and west of 35W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere between 35W and 65W. A tight pressure gradient is evident west of the north coast of Africa and through the Canary Islands with fresh to strong N-NE winds from 18N to 30N and east of 26N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 7 to 10 ft seas in the area of fresh to strong winds. A large area of Sahara dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward and weaken today. Winds will be fresh north of 28N through the early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of the area, except locally strong Tue through Wed. $$ Lewitsky/Mahoney