000 AXNT20 KNHC 112200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 17W and 24W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W from 14N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 40W and 51W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 17N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal near 12N17W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 04N45W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 25W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 25N84W to 22N87W. Scattered showers are noted near this trough. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle SE winds in the western Gulf. Moderate SE winds are noted along the Texas coast. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the SW Gulf. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it drifts northwestward to northward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most of the Caribbean, with fresh winds noted in the south-central portion of the basin. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Wed night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has limited shower activity associated with it. A new tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over these waters for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough is located from 27N59W to 22N64W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted across most of the region. Moderate southerly winds are noted near 31N between 73W and 80W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of Africa N of 21N and E of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 27N will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a fresh breeze north of 28N tonight through the weekend as a cold front moves by north of the area. Winds and seas should be quiescent across the waters on Mon and Tue. Winds may again strengthen to fresh north of 28N on Wed. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over these waters for the next several days. $$ AL