000 AXNT20 KNHC 110544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is located just off the African coast near 18W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 18W and 27W. An additional area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N east of 18W. Recent scatterometer data detected strong winds with this convection. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is over Venezuela near 66W from 14N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted inland over central Venezuela. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 08N25W. Segments of the ITCZ are located from 08N25W to 07N33W and from 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm north and 200 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N85W. A surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, producing scattered moderate convection in the southern Bay of Campeche and inland over the Yucatan. The latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf around the high pressure center. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft in the central Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure near 27N85W will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri, supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west winds over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of scattered moderate convection is present offshore near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, from 14N to 16N between 82W and 84W. Scattered showers are noted between Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica, likely due to some weak upper level divergence. Mainly moderate winds prevail over the Caribbean. The exceptions are fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and from the coast of Colombia to 13N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A weak tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms in that part of the area. The wave will reach the western Caribbean Sun. The next tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Mon through Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the southwestern Caribbean through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N43W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds encompass most of the basin, with an area of moderate NE winds in the eastern Atlantic to the southwest of the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters north of 20N, and 4-7 ft south of 20N. For the forecast W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will continue tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the area. A weak frontal trough will move over the far northwest waters during the weekend and dissipate by late Mon. South of the trough, expect fresh to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Mahoney