000 AXNT20 KNHC 101804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 15W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between Liberia to 20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 09N between 32W to 37W. A tropical wave is along 62W from 12N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at 10N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 07N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N37W to 02N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-25W, and from 02N-06N between 37W-44W, including northern coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate convection over the southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 22N90W to 18N93W. Elsewhere, a 1018 mb High centered over the northeast Gulf is providing light and gentle winds across the basin with seas ranging from 2 to 4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the far NE near the center of the high. The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri, leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds prevail across the much of the basin, locally fresh in the south- central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean as well as the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A weak tropical wave will enter the southeastern Caribbean today, possibly promoting the development of shower activity. The next tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near 30N37W westward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 30W-69W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate trades prevail south of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of PR to 26N between 61W-66W. Farther east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Torres