000 AXNT20 KNHC 101032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 14W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-10N between 05W-18W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N to 08.5N. A tropical wave is along 60W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at 10N. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen near where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is inland over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 07N32W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N35W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convections is from 06N-11N between 21W-23W, and from 03S-05N between 40W-52W, including over NE Brazil and French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate and scattered strong convection over the southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20.5N between 91.5W and 96.5W. Similar convection is occurring over the Mexican states of Tabasco, Chiapas, Veracruz and Oaxaca. At the surface, a 1019 mb surface high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N84W. Earlier ASCAT data showed light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the NE Gulf of Mexico with moderate SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri, with similar winds across the basin through Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will sink southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate W winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and also along the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds prevail across the much of the basin, locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean as well as the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A weak tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean today, enhancing showers. The next tropical wave will reach the E Caribbean on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near 32N51W to a 1019 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N between 45W-78W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate trades prevail south of 27N, locally fresh in the Old Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate S winds are east of Florida. An upper- level trough oriented NE-SW passes through 26N66W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 23N-26N between 61W-65W. Farther east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N, along with scattered showers and tstms. $$ Hagen