000 AXNT20 KNHC 091033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some gradual development is possible while the system moves slowly NW toward Central America. This system could produce heavy rainfall later this week and into the weekend across northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras southward. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27/28W from 13N southward, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 360 nm west and 90 nm east of the wave axis, from 00N-08N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-05N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 360 nm W of the wave axis from 05N- 08N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 15N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection seen over N Colombia between 72.5W-76W is being enhanced by the Colombian low and the approaching tropical wave. A tropical wave along 84W from 15N southward has moved into Central America, and has exited the basin. Isolated moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W to 02N40W to 04N50W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N53W to 08N59W. Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen near the coast of Africa from 03.5N-11N, east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, south of 25N between 83W-88W. Isolated showers and tstorms are also seen over the far southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N. A surface ridge extends from just east of Apalachicola Florida to the west-central Gulf near 26N94W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate SE winds prevail across most of the remainder of the Gulf, except for fresh ESE in the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh winds are west of the Yucatan Peninsula and near the coast of southern Texas. Seas 3-5 ft cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near Florida. For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf through today. By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will sink southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate SW to W winds over the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 70W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection stretching from the west coast of Haiti WNW to the W tip of Cuba. This includes the waters south of Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in the SW Gulf, south of 12N between 75W-84W. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds currently prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh winds are in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate E winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except 3-4 ft south of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to fresh tradewinds through today. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south- central Caribbean this weekend as high pressure ridging becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N69W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near this feature. At the surface, a high pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N across the entire basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 32N57W. In the W Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N. Moderate to fresh trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the tropical Atlantic south of 19N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken over the W Atlc today, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to moderate tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri. Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh SW winds north of 28N. For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue to pulse near the Canary Islands and off the coast of Western Sahara during the next several days, where seas will reach 7-8 ft at times. $$ Hagen