000 AXNT20 KNHC 080612 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 08 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The monsoon trough, a tropical wave, and an upper level trough will help to enhance rainfall from southern Nicaragua to Costa Rica, to Colombia, and to NW Venezuela, during the next few days. Please, read all the bulletins, and watch/warning information, from your local meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to 05N between 17W and 19W, at the southern end of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is related directly to the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward, to inland sections of Guyana, Venezuela, and eastern Colombia. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 16N southward. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, through 09N80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Colombia, and in the southern coastal waters of Colombia along the Pacific Ocean coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N20W, and to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W, to 05N40W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 20W and 30W, and within 285 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 33W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from the northern Gulf of Mexico, between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, to the coast of Mexico near 23N between 97W and 98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the NE coast of Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the lower Texas Gulf coast. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: fresh-to-strong E-to-SE winds are from 25N southward from 90W eastward, and including within 90 nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet. The sea heights are reaching six feet from 24N northward from 92W westward. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will cause moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as the Western Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil conditions through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and it continues to southern Nicaragua/northern Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area that is within 420 nm to the southeast of the line that runs from Hispaniola to northern Costa Rica. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 16N southward. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, through 09N80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Colombia, and in the southern coastal waters of Colombia along the Pacific Ocean coast. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Fresh-to-strong NE-to-E winds are from 18N southward between 58W and 63W...the sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet; from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 71W and 81W...the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet; and from 20N southward from 85W westward...the sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds will become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over parts of the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves that are traversing the region. The convection is expected to migrate to the SW Caribbean mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N55W, about 620 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. A surface trough is along 30N63W 23N64W 16N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N to 30N between 50W and 58W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N27W. No significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to the cyclonic center. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from the 30N63W 16N65W surface trough eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 33N56W. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N40W. Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds are within 420 nm on either side of the line that runs from 23N26W, 18N36W, 13N49W, to 13N60W. The sea heights in that area are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet. High pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves southward. These conditions will continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tue evening. A cold front may emerge off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia this weekend. This could slightly increase winds and seas offshore northern Florida. $$ mt/AH