000 AXNT20 KNHC 070954 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 11N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis south of 08N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 14N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N-09N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong convection is south of 13N between 72W-81W, including over NW Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16 to 08N19W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 04N33W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N35W to 07N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered strong convection is from 02N-10N between 11W- 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 88W. Fresh E to SE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S winds are in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in both locations. Moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere. High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with slight winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 75W. See above. An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to Costa Rica. Isolated moderate convection covers the area that is from Jamaica northward between the Windward Passage and the western tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE side of the upper-trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border. Fresh to strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean, with fresh trades elsewhere over the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean, north of 19N. Seas are 8-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the central and SW Caribbean mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about 550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the upper-low to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-28N between 55W-58W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base of the trough, between the upper-low and Hispaniola. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N30W, about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the Canary Islands. The subtropical ridge extends from a 1028 mb high near 33N38W westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Fresh trade winds are mainly south of 24N across the basin. Gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 29N. In the far east Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail off the coast of Mauritania. Seas are 7-9 ft stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 21N. Seas are 3-6 ft from 25N-31N. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon and this evening. $$ Hagen