000 AXNT20 KNHC 060529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W from 11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis mainly S of 05N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 14N southward, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 46W-53W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly affecting Venezuela and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 11N15W to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N30W to coastal Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries, with strongest activity prevailing within the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... In the north central Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough extends from near 28N89W to 25N92W. At this time, scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough and over the eastern Gulf enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with strongest winds noted within 100 nm north of the northern Yucatan peninsula coastline, and north of 27N between 88W-91W. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico will continue through Sun. Otherwise, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Winds across the basin will diminish to gentle to moderate E to SE by the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the southern portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A moderate pressure gradient across the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, mainly within 90 nm north of the Colombian/Venezuelan coasts. There is also an area of fresh to strong winds prevailing over the gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 4-6 across most of the basin except the south central portion, where 6-8 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. Moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere will prevail through early next week. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek. An increase in showers and thunderstorms can be expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the combination of a quasi-stationary upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores high dominates the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the eastern Atlantic veer to mainly E in the central Atlantic and then to SE in the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara supports strong winds from 19N to 24N between 17W and 21W with 8-9 ft seas. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft seas west of 78W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through early next week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. For the forecast east of 65W, the weakening Bermuda-Azores high will allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N Atlantic by Mon. $$ ERA