000 AXNT20 KNHC 051024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 05N between 20W-24W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 14N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 09N between 41W-47W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from 14N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail inland over Venezuela/Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 14N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to coastal Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered showers prevail within 300 nm on either sides of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge extends across the basin, contributing toward generally light to gentle winds across the area. The exception is west of Yucatan, where NE to E winds are moderate to fresh in association with the diurnal trough. Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 2-4 ft in the central and W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 85W-92W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection also prevails with the surface trough over the Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 20N. High pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through Wed. An upper-level low over western Texas will continue to enhance convection over the N Gulf waters and spread to the north-central Gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A pressure gradient between ridging near 30N and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is contributing toward a NE to E fresh to strong breeze over S central Caribbean as well as in the over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 6-7 ft over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the W Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are occurring south of 13N and east of 72W in association with an upper-level trough interacting with a tropical wave. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is near 36N27W with ridging extending west-southwestward to the Georgia-Florida border near 30N81W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure with the ITCZ is causing fresh to strong E trades just north of Hispaniola, strong NE winds just west of NW Africa north of 13N east of 27W, and moderate to fresh NE to E trades elsewhere. Seas are 8-9 ft just west of NW Africa and 4-7 ft elsewhere. A surface trough is contributing toward scattered showers from 25N-31N between 30W-39W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon. For the forecast east of 65W, a weakening Bermuda-Azores High will allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N Atlantic by Mon. $$ ERA