299 
AXNT20 KNHC 012106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, from 15N southward, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 20W-24W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W/36W, from 09N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N-10N between 34W-41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 12N southward across
central Venezuela, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convection is 
inland over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 
05N23W to 06N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N39W  
to 05N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N-06N between 25W-31W, and from 06N-10N between
49W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary ahead of a cold front located over South 
Texas is located in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are north of 23N and west of 93W. Otherwise, high 
pressure prevails allowing for gentle to moderate E-SE winds 
across most of the basin. Seas are mainly in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will prevail across the 
forecast waters this week. Fresh NE-E winds will pulse each night 
off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected elsewhere through the 
end of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes from NW Colombia into the east Pacific
south of Panama. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection associated with the monsoon trough is in the SW and
S-central Caribbean, within 150 nm northwest of the coast of
Colombia. The pressure gradient between higher pressure north of 
the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia is 
supporting moderate to fresh trades over the S-central Caribbean 
with seas in the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are over 
the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail elsewhere with 3-6 ft seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the S-central 
Caribbean will prevail through this evening before diminishing. 
High pressure will prevail across the central Atlc through the 
week. This will support moderate to fresh tradewinds across much 
of the basin through Sat. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the NW Bahamas to 
the gulfstream near 25N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted across the central and NW Bahamas. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found west of the 
trough. A cold front extends from north of the Canary Islands
through 31N25W to 30N35W to 30N40W. Scattered showers are possible
on either side of the front. High pressure dominates the 
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high 
pressure near 36N53W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the 
forecast waters west of 35W, while gentle to moderate winds are 
east of 35W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 60W. East of 
60W, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, an upper-level low will drift
southeast over the Bahamas and E Cuba through Thu, enhancing 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. High 
pressure will prevail north of the area through the remainder of 
the week. This will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
trade winds across much of the forecast waters through Sat.

$$
Lewitsky