000 AXNT20 KNHC 300843 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 33W and 38W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 48W and 56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N35W. It continues from 04N38W to 03N44W to 04N49W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 10W and 31W, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the northern waters, from N Florida to E Texas. Gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the front. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the far SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front over the far northern Gulf will stall along 27N tonight. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind the front this morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from Puerto Rico westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N to 20N from the Mona Passage westward. The monsoon trough passes through 10N/11N from Colombia along 73W beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 09.5N to 11N between 70W in Venezuela and the coastal waters of Colombia. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 12N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will remain generally south of 13N through Sunday, before expanding slightly northward on Sunday night. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. The trade winds will freshen east of 80W, from Sunday night through Tuesday, as high pressure strengthens modestly in the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and from the SE Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward from 74W eastward. A high pressure ridge extends W-SW to central Florida. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the central and NE Florida coasts tonight, ahead of a cold front that is forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on Sunday. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sunday, before stalling on Sunday night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region, from late Monday through Wednesday. $$ AL