000 AXNT20 KNHC 300534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 14N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong surrounds the tropical wave, within 420 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 15N southward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 75 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 06N to 08N, and from 06N to 08N between 53W and 55W. The scatterometer data show that fresh-to-strong NE winds are from 06N to 15N between 40W and 48W, between the two tropical waves, and from 09N to 13N between 55W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W, to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N29W and 01N35W, to 04N38W, 03N34W, and to 04N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 01N to 07N between 08W and 28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong, disorganized, is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through NE Florida to the Yucatan Channel. A cold front passes through NE Florida, to the Florida Big Bend, through SE Louisiana, and beyond SW Louisiana, into Texas. A surface trough is along 30N84W 26N86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, within 100 nm to 220 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from 27N at the coast of Florida, northward and northeastward. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. Scattered to numerous strong is inland, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, between 94W and 97W. The NE-to-SW oriented surface trough that runs through Mexico is just to the south of the precipitation. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends W-SW, across central Florida, and to the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front in the far northern Gulf will stall along 27N on Sunday night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind the front tonight through Sunday morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from Puerto Rico westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N to 20N from the Mona Passage westward. The monsoon trough passes through 10N/11N from Colombia along 73W beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 09.5N to 11N between 70W in Venezuela and the coastal waters of Colombia. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 12N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. Fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will remain generally south of 13N through Sunday, before expanding slightly northward on Sunday night. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. The trade winds will freshen east of 80W, from Sunday night through Tuesday, as high pressure strengthens modestly in the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and from the SE Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward from 74W eastward. A high pressure ridge extends W-SW to central Florida. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the central and NE Florida coasts tonight, ahead of a cold front that is forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on Sunday. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sunday, before stalling on Sunday night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region, from late Monday through Wednesday. $$ mt/al