000 AXNT20 KNHC 292354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 03N-13N, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave continues to be affected by the dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer as well as strong wind shear, which is limiting the convection to the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 15N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Microwave layered precipitable water and water vapor imagery show the wave is in a deep-layered dry environment, which is hindering the development of deep convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 03N30W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N east of 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 30W and 43W, and from 06N to 09N between 45W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient in the region and an approaching weak cold front over the SE United States is contributing toward moderate or weaker winds across the Gulf of Mexico this evening. A squall line over NE Mexico reaches the far west-central Gulf of Mexico with scattered moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N west of 93W. Seas are up to 3 ft basin-wide. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail today as the Atlc ridge extends W-SW across central Florida and across the SE Gulf. The Atlc ridge extends W-SW across central Florida and to the SE Gulf. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along 27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop behind the front tonight through Sun morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest N-S pressure between the Azores high and a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia is causing NE to E fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are gentle to moderate. Isolated showers are noted over the Panama and Costa Rica adjacent waters in association with the Pacific monsoon trough that extends to N Colombia. Seas are 4-5 ft over the central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain generally south of 13N through Sun before expanding slightly northward Sun night. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen east of 80W Sun night through Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb Azores High near 37N32W west-southwestward to the Bahamas. The N-S pressure gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate to fresh trades E of 60W with seas in the 7-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the central and NE Florida coasts tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late Mon through Wed. For the forecast east of 65W, the Azores High is forecast to weaken on Tue and Wed. $$ Ramos