000 AXNT20 KNHC 291007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 11N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 42W and 48W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis S of 06N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 09N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N28W. It resumes from 04N32W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ from 19W to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure across the area has started to shift eastward. A trough is analyzed across the Florida panhandle and extends just offshore. Gentle to moderate cyclonic flow prevails around the trough over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to SE flow prevails elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west of 94W, and 1-3 ft east of 94W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf today. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along 27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop behind the front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure prevails over the SW N Atlantic waters, with a surface trough extending north of Puerto Rico. The surface trough is helping for a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean S of 13N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain generally south of 13N through this evening before expanding slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN A weak surface ridge extends across the SW N Atlantic waters along 27N. A few surface troughs are noted across the region. One extends from 26N65W to just north of Puerto Rico, the second one extends from 29N56W to 19N57W, and a third one extends from 31N42W to 28N42W. Fresh winds are noted off the coast of northern Florida, N of 30N due to a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure dominating along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted S of 20N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the open waters W of 60W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late Mon through Wed. $$ AL