000 AXNT20 KNHC 282122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 28W and 31W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N15W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 08N15W to 04N28W, from 04N30W to 03N33W, and from 03N45W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 15W and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1017 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W westward across the northern Gulf to the coast of southeast Louisiana. A weak remnant of a outflow boundary from earlier inland convection is analyzed moving off the coast of southwest Louisiana and the north Texas coast. Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Visibility is good across the Gulf, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic off east-central Florida will extend westward to central Texas, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Sat. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night ofCONUSf the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf Sat night into Sun before stalling along 27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind the front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 2 to 3 ft over the far NW Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted across the basin. For the forecast, the fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain generally south of 13N through Sat evening before expanding slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend. Tradewinds will freshen east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN An upper trough reaches from 32N74W southward toward Andros Island in the Bahamas. Divergence aloft on the east side of the trough is possibly supporting a few showers east of the central Bahamas. A trough reaches from eastern Hispaniola northward along 66W/67W east of the Bahamas to near 25N65W. An upper low is centered near 27N58W, supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along a surface trough reaching from 26N60W to 30N55W. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist west of 65W. Farther east, the remnant trough of an earlier cold front reaches from Madeira to 27N31W. 1028 mb high pressure centered west of the Azores is supporting mainly moderate trades winds east of 65W, except for fresh N to NE winds off the coast of northwest Africa, with 5 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, weak high pressure prevails across the region today. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the northeast Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern U.S. early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late Mon through Wed. $$ Christensen