000 AXNT20 KNHC 261805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has been relocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surface component and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropical wave diagnostics. A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surface analysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to 18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in the scatterometer data. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W, breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to 06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to 18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N west of 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf of Mexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. No significant shower or deep convective activity is occurring today. Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected today through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun and stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north to northeast winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong to near gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today. Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that extends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portions of the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure reside offshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminish significantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today and become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving west across the eastern Atlantic. Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at 38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that are fresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. A surface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough - extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scattered showers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W. Seas are 8-10 ft south of 15N west of 40W as well as north of 15N east of 25W and 5-7 ft elsehwere. In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north of 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of Bermuda interrupts the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through early Thu. Winds will become gentle to moderate Thu through Sun as the Atlantic ridge extends from the east central Atlantic weakly W-SW to Florida. Thu night, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to come off the southeastern CONUS late Sat. The cold front will push across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. In the forecast for east of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores High will weaken some on Thu leading toward a reduction in the NE to E trades to moderate to fresh. Seas should diminish across the waters below 8 ft by Fri. $$ Landsea